College Football 25 simulation: Can Utah State put together a winning streak by beating San Diego State?

Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every Utah State game against an FBS opponent this season.
While Utah State won’t make the postseason, the Aggies have shown positive signs in recent weeks as the end of a forgettable season approaches its end.
Utah State is coming off a 45-point home win over Hawaii and will have some momentum going into the team’s home finale against San Diego State on Saturday.
How will the Aggies wrap up their home portion of the schedule?
The Deseret News ran a simulation of Saturday’s game on the EA Sports College Football 25 video game, and the Aggies put together a solid performance for a second straight week.
There were a couple of ground rules in place: The simulation used 10-minute quarters and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.
Injuries and depth chart changes were also implemented, though this week, that didn’t involve any new wrinkles.
I also matched up the uniform combos the best I could with the information I had.
Utah State is going with a bull logo on its helmet, though it isn’t available in the video game, so I went with the Aggies’ traditional all-blue home jerseys.
There were no details on San Diego State’s uniform combo for the game, so I went with their normal away jersey that includes red helmets, white jersey and black pants.
The actual score: Utah State 55, Hawaii 10
College Football 25 simulation final score: Hawaii 16, Utah State 8
My analysis: The simulation was way off on how much scoring would happen in the Utah State-Hawaii matchup.
Part of that can be chalked up to the fact I thought it might be a snow game and the simulation was played in cold, snowy weather, leading to a naturally lower scoring game.
In reality, though, Utah State had its best game of the season in blowing past the Rainbow Warriors.
Final score: Utah State 29, San Diego State 21
Key sequence: San Diego State had the ball late in the second quarter with a chance to take the lead, but the game’s only turnover ended up leading to a key Aggie touchdown.
With Utah State nursing a 10-7 lead, JD Drew intercepted a pass at the SDSU 40, setting up a 40-yard touchdown drive.
Three plays after the pick, Jack Hestera caught a 36-yard pass on third and 10 to move the ball inside the SDSU 5, and on the following play, Otto Tia caught a 4-yard touchdown to give Utah State a 17-7 lead in the final minute of the first half.
How the simulation transpired: Utah State built a lead before holding off San Diego State.
The Aztecs had the chance to score first, but a 29-yard field goal attempt missed on the game’s opening drive.
Utah State responded with a five-play, 80-yard touchdown drive, capped by a Kyrese White 28-yard touchdown catch to make it 7-0.
San Diego State, though, had a quick answer, as Ja’Shaun Poke got behind the Aggie secondary and sped for a 79-yard touchdown pass on the third play of the ensuing drive to make it 7-7 late in the first quarter.
Utah State scored on its second drive, adding a field goal to make it 10-7 on a possession that featured multiple chunk plays through the air, including a 35-yard grab from White.
After both offenses bogged down over the next several minutes, Drew’s interception led to another touchdown drive for Utah State and a 17-7 halftime lead.
The Aggies’ second drive of the second half came on a short field, as Utah State used back-to-back sacks to pin San Diego State deep in its own territory — then Utah State started its ensuing possession at the Aztecs 44.
A grind-it-out drive ended with Utah State’s second field goal of the day, from 29 yards, to make it 20-7.
Like its first score, San Diego State again had a quick answer, going 82 yards in just three plays, capped by a 39-yard touchdown reception by Poke for his second score of the day to make it 20-14.
Utah State responded well, going 83 yards in six plays to score on a 52-yard touchdown grab by White with just over 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter. That made the score 26-14, and Utah State tried to convert a two-point attempt to make it a 14-point lead, but Spencer Petras couldn’t connect with Tia on the two-point try.
Utah State followed that up with the Aggies’ fifth sack of the day, forcing a San Diego State punt, and Utah State drove for its third field goal of the game, a 23-yarder, to make it 29-14 with 3:13 remaining.
The Aztecs made it a one-score contest again after Mikey Welsh caught a 67-yard pass to get San Diego State inside the Utah State 20, and SDSU quarterback Danny O’Neil scored on a 5-yard scramble with 1:01 to play, making it 29-21 with the extra point.
Utah State recovered the ensuing onside kick attempt, though, and ran out the clock.
Star players: Petras had an efficient day, throwing for 298 yards and three touchdowns for Utah State.
White was the biggest recipient of his passing, with four catches for 109 yards and two touchdowns.
Faison added 134 yards on the ground.
For San Diego State, O’Neil threw for 291 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, while he also scored on a touchdown run.
Poke was a game-changer, with five receptions for 144 yards and two touchdowns, while Marquez Cooper added 82 rushing yards and 31 receiving yards.
Key stats: Utah State outgained San Diego State 426 total yards to 352, and the Aggies were better on third down, converting 6 of 11 while the Aztecs were 3 of 7.
The game’s lone turnover, O’Neil’s interception in the second quarter, also ended up being a critical moment.
My analysis: This simulation seems totally plausible in the actual contest.
Utah State, amidst a trying season, has won two of its last three games and this one feels like a winnable but likely tight matchup.